ST. LOUIS — To fully illustrate the tough luck that Alec Burleson has so often hit into this season, the first baseman/outfielder leads Cardinals players with at least 300 plate appearances in terms of the gap between his actual production and his expected numbers in three major offensive statistical categories.
On Tuesday, just minutes after Burleson impressively drove an up-and-away pitch into the left-center gap for a ground-rule RBI double, his tough luck from the 2023 season continued in the form of what is likely a season-ending injury.
The 24-year-old Burleson fractured his left thumb after jamming it into the third-base bag on a head-first slide. Burleson, who doubled in Lars Nootbaar in the first inning of the Cardinals’ 7-3 loss to the Brewers, stole third base, but ended up doing damage to his thumb. Burleson briefly stayed in the game and scored from third on a Nolan Arenado sacrifice fly. He then left the dugout for the X-ray room, where the thumb fracture was revealed.
“I slid into the bag and looked at my thumb, and at first glance, I thought it was dislocated, and I popped it back in, but that wasn’t the case,” said Burleson, who hit .273 with three home runs and a .742 OPS after the All-Star break. “I knew pretty quick [about the fracture] because I’ve jammed fingers before, and this one didn’t feel the same.”
A night after watching franchise icon Adam Wainwright win the 200th game of his MLB career in stirring fashion, the Cardinals lost to officially seal their fate for 2023. Their 84th loss of the season eliminated them from playoff contention. It is the first time since 2018 that the Cards will be on the outside looking in when the playoffs begin in early October.
“[Elimination] doesn’t even come to mind, quite honestly,” said manager Oliver Marmol, whose club traded away five pitchers before the MLB Trade Deadline. “We’ve been in a different mode for quite some time now evaluating what we have and making sure we’re preparing for ’24.”
Burleson, who should know by Wednesday whether he will need surgery on the thumb, hit between superstars Paul Goldschmidt and Arenado in the Cardinals’ order on Tuesday. Despite him hitting just .244 on the season, Marmol believes in the top-end potential of the left-handed-hitting Burleson because of his ability to combine a high barrel rate with low swing-and-miss numbers.
Burleson’s expected batting average — numbers calculated based on exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, sprint speed — was .267, 25 points higher than the .242 actual average he had when he entered the day. Similarly, Burleson’s actual slugging percentage when he entered the day was 43 points lower than his expected slugging percentage and when he entered the day, his actual wOBA (weighted on-base average) was 30 points lower than the expected wOBA. The gaps between the three expected numbers and the actual numbers rank first on the Cardinals among players with at least 300 plate appearances.
“It tells you that your process is right, and your preparation is right and you’re doing the things you need to do, but at this level, it’s about results,” Burleson said. “Those numbers can tell you certain things, but at the end of the day, it’s about production, driving in those runs and getting those big hits. The expected numbers are good, but when it comes down to it, it’s about producing.”
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