September 19, 2024

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - APRIL 01: Louisville Cardinals mascot in the semi-final game of the 2022 NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament at Target Center on April 01, 2022 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Louisville basketball odds: How will Pat Kelsey do in Year 1? Here’s Vegas’ early outlook

As an encouraging exhibition tour of the Bahamas came to a close Aug. 1, Pat Kelsey said his inaugural Louisville men’s basketball team still had “a long, long, long way to go” to reach its full potential.

But it was clear to anyone who tuned in to the Cardinals’ romp through the Baha Mar Hoops Summer League that Kelsey and his collection of predominantly veteran transfers will be entering the 2024-25 season miles ahead of where the program was before what proved to be former head coach Kenny Payne’s final campaign.

That sentiment is reflected in Las Vegas, where oddsmakers at BetMGM have already churned out futures for who will be crowned NCAA Tournament champions, who will claim the ACC regular-season title and who will be the last team standing at the Bad Boy Mowers Battle 4 Atlantis in November.

Here’s a look at where U of L stood in late August compared to where it was last preseason:

BetMGM had Louisville at +10,000 to cut down the nets next April in San Antonio.

Thirty-two teams have better odds to do so, led by back-to-back national champion Connecticut (+900). Three of them call the ACC home: Duke (+1,000), North Carolina (+1,800) and Miami (+8,000).

Seven other teams had the same title odds as U of L: Kansas State, Maryland, Oregon, Texas Tech, USC, Villanova and Wisconsin. Of the eight sitting at +10,000, five appeared in ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s latest projected NCAA Tournament field at the end of July.

Louisville was among the three on the outside looking in; the others being the Trojans and the Badgers. With its schedule ranking among the 30 toughest in Division I, college hoops advanced analytics guru Bart Torvik’s formulas predict a 16-13 (10-10 ACC) finish to Year 1 of Kelsey’s tenure and give the Cardinals a 18.7% chance of reaching March Madness.

Considering Louisville had the fourth-best odds among ACC teams of winning the national championship, its position in BetMGM’s outlook for the conference’s regular-season title race should come as no surprise.

The Cards, at +900, trail only the Blue Devils (+200), the Tar Heels (+425) and the Hurricanes (+750).

Per SportsOddsHistory.com, U of L was +10,000 to finish atop the ACC regular-season standings ahead of the 2023-24 campaign and +25,000 on March 1 to win the conference tournament.

Entering its 11th go-around in the ACC, Louisville is still searching for its first regular-season crown and its first trip past the quarterfinal round of the conference tournament. Dating back to the 2020-21 campaign, the Cards are 19-57 against league opponents.

The good news is they lead the ACC in Torvik’s experience metric and will face Duke, North Carolina and Miami only once apiece in Year 1 under Kelsey. All of those games will be played at the KFC Yum! Center.

 

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