Top seed Sabalenka won 6-3 7-5 in a victory that also confirmed Elena Rybakina’s elimination from the season-ending tournament in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Earlier on Monday, Kazakhstan’s Rybakina was beaten 7-6 (7-4) 3-6 6-1 by Olympic champion Zheng Qinwen for her second defeat at the Finals, and required a Paolini victory to keep her hopes alive.
But a gritty win over the Italian – which saw her save two set points – put Sabalenka one step closer to sealing a maiden WTA Finals title, as well as the year-end world number one ranking.
Should she defeat Rybakina in her final Purple Group match on Wednesday, the Belarusian will remain top of the standings into 2025, out of the reach of Iga Swiatek
“I’m proud of myself. Not only myself, my team,” said Sabalenka, 26.
“We were able to overcome a lot of things. To be able to show such great tennis and become world number one. It’s teamwork, it’s not only me.
“Nobody sees the behind-the-scenes work. But they do a lot for me. I really appreciate them for everything they do for me. This is motivation for me to keep winning on this court.”
An early double break of serve saw Sabalenka – a two-time Grand Slam champion in 2024 – hit the ground running against Paolini, and while the 28-year-old fourth seed cancelled out one of those breaks, she could do little to challenge her big-hitting opponent.
The second set, however, told a different tale. Though Sabalenka reeled off four consecutive games after an early break for Paolini, she grew frustrated as the Italian – enjoying a breakthrough season on the WTA Tour – mounted a comeback to go 5-4 ahead.
But after saving two set points, a switch flicked for Sabalenka, immediately breaking Paolini’s serve once more before wrapping up the match at the first time of asking.
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